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Published: Nov 4, 2026, 2:01 PM
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McDonald's (MCD) sales growth likely slowed in the third quarter as consumers faced a challenging economic backdrop and the fast food chain unveiled its growth strategy.
Heading into McDonald's earnings, scheduled for release before the bell on Wednesday, Placer.ai found that visits to the Golden Arches declined from a year ago, but promotions in October may lead to some strength ahead of the holiday season.
Wall Street expects that same-store sales grew by 1.4% year over year, according to Bloomberg estimates, compared with 3.6% growth in Q3 last year. In the US, the company is expected to post a 0.5% comparable sales decline.
Overall, revenue is expected to come in at $7.4 billion, alongside adjusted earnings of $3.67 per share.
BTIG analyst Peter Saleh said "lower-income challenges, disappointing promotions and overly crowded marketing calendars" were top concerns among franchisee operators in the quarter.
"Beverages were called out as a rare bright spot," he added, alluding to an energy drink McDonald's launched with Red Bull in September.
The company is also leaning into holiday offerings beginning on Nov. 3. McDonald's unveiled a limited-time lineup consisting of a cookie butter coffee or latte, a cranberry-infused Sprite drink, and a cranberry-flavored Red Bull energy drink.
Citi's Jon Tower shared a similar message in a note, writing, "We still have confidence in beverages as a broader platform, [and] another attempt at entry-level value should come in early '27."
Pedestrians walk past a large illuminated JCDecaux street advertisement displaying a McDonald's McCafe coffee promotion on Sept. 11, 2026, in Dublin, Ireland. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images) · NurPhoto via Getty Images
The company named Skye Anderson, a 26-year McDonald's veteran, as president of McDonald's USA last quarter. Anderson is working on a new value menu for 2027 after franchisees and consumers didn't fully engage with the company's under-$3 offerings.
Anderson will play a key role in a new growth strategy as McDonald's makes a long-term bet on artificial intelligence, hand-breaded chicken, and a return of the 90s-style restaurant design to regain customers who left for other chains, like Burger King (QSR).
McDonald's said it plans to invest $8.5 billion through 2036 to support restaurant tech updates with rent relief and capital. It intends to deliver roughly $5 billion of that investment by 2030.
According to Saleh, franchisees' reactions to the NEXT growth strategy are mixed.
"Franchisees [are] highly skeptical that level of margin gain is possible, unconvinced a broad remodel program is needed, and noting very few details about cost and co-investment have been shared," Saleh wrote. "Without a significant reduction in build cost and more field-testing, we don't believe Project NEXT can proceed."