Jeff Vojta can’t catch a break.

The CEO of Dilworth Coffee in Raleigh, North Carolina, contended with a miserable Brazilian coffee crop in 2024 that vaulted coffee futures to record highs. The next year, President Donald Trump’s global tariffs raised coffee prices even higher.

Then, this year, the Iran war started. And a Super El Niño.

“Between shipping disruptions, the lack of containers, high costs because of what’s going on in the Red Sea and higher fertilizer costs, we have this period of disruption that we’ve never encountered before,” said Vojta, who founded the national coffee distributor more than three decades ago. “There’s just so much uncertainty.”

Jeff Vojta, CEO of Dilworth Coffee. Courtesy Dilworth Coffee

Around the country, American business owners across myriad industries say they’re in a similar boat. A closely watched monthly survey from the Institute for Supply Management raised eyebrows earlier this month after several business leaders compared the current business climate to the pandemic.

They said Covid was better.

Massive disruptions and price instability are forcing businesses to make impossible decisions. They have no idea how to plan, and their inflation-wary customers are in no mood for more price hikes.

“This is a bigger problem than Covid, for sure,” said Jack Buffington, director of the supply chain program at the University of Denver. “This is completely different. This is an energy problem.”

The Trump administration has tried to frame the Iran war as a temporary economic blip — and once resolved, rebounding inflation will quickly reverse itself. But the historic supply chain struggles that America’s business owners face show why resurgent inflation will not be easily resolved – even if the war miraculously ended tomorrow.

A shopper browses products at a grocery store in Wilmington, North Carolina, on August 8, 2026. Allison Joyce/Bloomberg/Getty Images

When will it stop?

“Oil prices will drop precipitously” when the war with Iran is won, Trump said in a Truth Social post on Labor Day. “It will all happen quickly.”

There’s precedent for that. In mid-June, when the Strait of Hormuz briefly reopened after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, gas prices fell below $4 a gallon and oil sank below pre-war levels.

“Of course, gas prices are too high,” Speaker Mike Johnson said in a press briefing on Wednesday. “When we get that thing resolved in the Strait of Hormuz, that will have a direct effect on that, and it will help to bring down grocery costs.”

But much has changed since June. High fuel and shipping prices have started to bleed out into other parts of the economy. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, rose last month by the highest amount since April. And it’s showing up in higher prices of services — costs that typically don’t come down after they go up.

Diesel prices have doubled since March because of the intensifying war in the Middle East and Ukraine’s continued bombardment of Russian refineries.

But shipping costs have also risen because of an increasing number of weather disruptions — including back-to-back typhoons that effectively closed the port of Shanghai, the world’s largest container port, for two weeks and continue to cause significant delays.

General view of tourists taking selfies at North Bund in Shanghai, China, as Typhoon Dolphin approaches the country on August 8, 2026. Ying Tang/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on August 31, 2026. Stringer/Reuters

A person prepares to refuel their semi-truck on August 13, 2026 in Nortrees, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Ending the war in Iran — itself an enormously tall task — will do nothing to end Russia’s diesel export ban, which blocked off 12% of the world’s seaborne diesel supply. It can’t improve the weather.

And it won’t reverse the resurgence of the Iran-allied Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden. Both impediments have forced shipping companies to reroute their ships around the entire African continent to avoid attacks — reducing the amount of global shipping capacity by 15% this year, said Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a logistics and supply chain software platform.

“I’ve been in logistics for 25 years, and I’ve never seen anything as bad as this,” he said.

Meanwhile, businesses are at the breaking point, said Sean Brownlee, CEO of rope, cord and leash manufacturer Ravenox.

Sean Brownlee Courtesy Sean Brownlee

“Small businesses will absorb as much cost as they can until the very last minute,” Brownlee said. “Now we’re feeling acute pressure.”

Brownlee got into the business after a 25-year career in the US Marine Corps to create a US manufacturing company that supports American jobs. Now, the unpredictable environment is threatening his dream.

“This issue really hits home,” Brownlee said of expensive supply chain disruptions. “We just want predictability.”

Covid comparisons

It was alarming when an ISM survey respondent argued the current supply chain situation is a “crisis even bigger and more complicated than during and post Covid.”

In 2020, container ships were stuck for weeks trying to enter ports. Stores couldn’t keep toilet paper, masks or hand sanitizer on shelves. The supply chain effectively came to a halt before it gradually started back up again.

Today’s supply chain problems are altogether different: Shipping starts, stops, gets worse, gets much better, and then much worse again. Prices go up, down, and shoot higher again.

Trucks are parked at a Pilot gas station on September 17, 2026, in Newark, New Jersey. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images North America/Getty Images

“The supply chain works, but with much more cost, friction and uncertainty than during Covid,” said Brownlee.

That extreme volatility spells chaos for business leaders.

“Covid was very scary,” said Vojta. “This is more stressful. We have this period of disruption that we’ve never encountered before.”

Vojta said his small team at Dilworth has to conduct significantly more research and price modeling than in the past. The company is accustomed to settling on its coffee sources 12 to 24 months ahead of time. Now it’s sourcing just three to six months out.

Coffee plants at a farm in Franca, Sao Paulo, Brazil, on August 25, 2026. Victor Moriyama/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Weather has played a significant factor. This year’s Super El Niño has raised questions about the Vietnamese and Brazilian coffee crops.

But so has the company’s limited cash on hand. It can’t stock as much coffee as it used to because shipping costs are through the roof. Margins are thinner. And customers don’t have the disposable incomes they had during the post-pandemic years.

Normally, Vojta’s sales volumes fluctuate by 5% a month. Now they’re up or down as much as 20%.

“This dynamic situation is new to us: How long is diesel going to be over $6? How are we going to pass this along to customers?” said Vojta. “It’s challenging — our customers are dealing with the same things we are.”