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Inflation expected to jump to a 3-year high as Iran war continues to fuel rising prices

Tue, 12 May 2026 13:32:56 GMT
Inflation expected to jump to a 3-year high as Iran war continues to fuel rising prices

Inflation surged to 3.8% in April, its highest level in nearly three years, according to data released Tuesday, as the war in Iran causes a ripple effect across the economy and energy prices surge.

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As inflation continues to accelerate, it’s eating into Americans’ wages at a rapid clip. April’s inflation rate means that prices are now rising faster than wages for the first time since 2023, which could exacerbate the affordability crisis that has already been gripping consumers.

The pace of wage gains has been slowing over the past two years. In November, wage growth continued to rise at a pace of almost 4%. April’s jobs report, which was released on Friday, showed that wage growth had slowed to 3.6%.

Shoppers at a Lidl Supermarket in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Monday. Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

The overall rise in inflation was in line with what was expected by economists. On a month-over-month basis, inflation rose 0.6%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs also rose 0.4% from the month prior, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. That rise was higher than what had been expected by economists.

As of Tuesday morning, the price of oil had risen more than 70% since the start of the year and the average price of a gallon of gas was $4.50.

“The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase,” BLS said in a statement.

Still, energy prices may not have yet fully hit prices.

“Energy costs likely would not start to feed through to core goods prices for at least a few more months,” Citigroup said in a note to clients on Monday.

The BLS also noted that other energy market-linked prices rose in the month, including airfares and apparel. Airfares alone rose 20% from a year ago.

The price of jet fuel has surged 60% since the war with Iran started, according to data from Argus. In response, a number of airlines, including Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest have increased bag fees. Some international airlines have also implemented surcharges on ticket prices.

The U.S. Postal Service in April introduced a “limited time price change” to offset rising fuel costs.

Tuesday’s report also showed that other categories such as “food at home,” or grocery prices, jumped 0.7% in April, while services, which includes transportation, rose 0.5% from the month before.

The jump in grocery prices was the most in nearly four years.

It wasn’t universally bad news for consumers though. Prices fell slightly in the new vehicles, medical care, health insurance and communications categories. The price of used vehicles was flat in the month and prices for vehicle maintenance also ticked down.