Oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.

A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts including Vikas Dwivedi said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%. An alternative outlook, with probability of 60%, suggested the war may finish at the end of this month, they said.