Brent tops $73 as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes keep Hormuz on edge, leaving oil markets vulnerable to sharp summer price swings.

Hormuz Plays Red Light, Green Light as Transits Slow Down This Week

- Reaching 59 transits, June 24 has marked the highest number of Hormuz crossings since US-Iran MoU was signed, with traffic slowing down following last week’s attack on a cargo ship and weekend strikes on Iranian territory.

- This week’s daily transit rates hover around 20-25 ships per day, however nowadays most of Hormuz movement is inbound rather than outbound, suggesting shippers await safer days to pass through the strait.

- Longer delays in the pace of re-opening could derail plans of Middle Eastern producers as both Kuwait and Iraq have been massively ramping up their oil production over the past week, to 70-75% of pre-war levels.

- Global crude on water - the aggregate number of oil that is currently loaded onto tankers – has jumped to its highest since the start of US-Iran hostilities this week, reaching 1.29 billion barrels.

- The recovery in refined product supply would take longer than the resumption of crude oil flows as refined product cracks in the US, Europe and Asia have all gone up last week amidst shrinking inventories.

Market Movers

- San Mateo Midstream, the joint venture of Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR) and Five Point Infrastructure, agreed to buy Cardinal Midstream Partners for $752 million, boosting its portfolio of natural gas midstream assets in the Delaware Basin.

- France’s TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) and the UK’s BP (NYSE:BP) have each taken a 10% stake in the UAE’s Bab Gas Cap project operated by ADNOC, supporting the UAE’s plan to become self-sufficient in natural gas production.

- Italy’s ENI (BIT:ENI) and the ADNOC’s investment arm XRG have signed a deal for three exploration blocks in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin, with both taking a 32% stake in the fields that are assumed to feed the upcoming Argentina LNG project.

- Libya’s OLA Energy Holdings, owned by the country’s sovereign wealth fund, announced the acquisition of TotalEnergies’ (NYSE:TTE) assets in Ethiopia, making it the largest foreign company in its retail market.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

With the Hormuz still half-open, the oil markets are increasingly pricing in a period of summer volatility. The resumption of missile attacks between the US and Iran has not helped shippers to deflate war risk premiums and insurance costs, yet flows out of the Gulf continue to trend higher than they were before the signing of the MoU. ICE Brent has gained more than $1 per barrel so far this week, trending above $73 per barrel, a new flashy headline could send oil prices in any direction now.

Iran Makes Hormuz a One-Lane Strait. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has announced that it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz only if they use the northern route closest to its coast during the current 60-day ceasefire period, asking Oman to redirect all vessels towards Iran’s coast.

Beijing Paves the Way for Export Freedom. Chinese authorities have lifted restrictions on some refined products exports this week, partially rolling back the export ban introduced March 12, as state-controlled refiners were allowed to export gasoline and diesel freely from July onwards.

Extreme Heat Lifts Henry Hub Prices. US natural gas futures jumped above $3.3 per MMBtu for the first time since February this week, lifted by forecasts of heatwaves in the country’s northeast with New York expecting record temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit this Thursday and Friday.

The UAE Switches Its Pricing Policy. ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, is changing its pricing methodology for the sales of its offshore grades, detaching them from a previous link to IFAD Murban futures and pricing them at a differential to the Dubai benchmark from now onwards.

Russia Extends Anti-Price Cap Restrictions. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has extended the country’s ban on supplying crude oil and refined products to legal entities and individuals if the contracts directly or indirectly stipulate the use of the $44.10 per barrel price cap mechanism.

Pipeline Fire Impacts Outlook of India’s Petrochemicals. The naphtha pipeline feeding India’s privately owned Haldia Petrochemicals caught fire on the morning of June 30, lowering the outlook for regional naphtha demand and lifting polyethylene as Haldia is the 2nd largest producer in India.

Clampdown Rocks Iraq’s Oil Industry. Iraq’s new prime minister Ali al Zaidi has launched an anti-corruption investigation that saw the arrests of deputy oil minister Ali al-Bahadli (already under US sanctions) and several top-ranking officials at the ministry, accused of misappropriating public funds.

Japan to Announce New Energy Strategy. Caught flat-footed by the Hormuz crisis, the Japanese government now plans to revamp its energy strategy with a new plan expected by end-August, pledging to boost energy resilience and expedite decarbonization, seen as a pro-nuclear move.

Pakistan Buys the Promptest LNG Available. Pakistan's state-owned Pakistan LNG has bought an extremely prompt cargo of LNG from Qatar, for a June 30 to July 4 delivery, at a $16.74/MMBtu price, some $2/MMBtu above the market price, as the Asian nation faces summer blackouts.

Cyprus’ Gas Hopes Buoyed by Commercial Find. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) declared commerciality on the Glaucus and Pegasus offshore gas discoveries, with combined reserves estimated at 8-9 TCf, expecting an FID on those projects in 2029 and first production by 2033.

EU to Impose New Steel Import Quotas. The European Commission unveiled new steel import quotas to protect the region’s industry from global overcapacity, slashing the tally of tariff-free import quotas by 47% to 18.3 million metric tonnes and adding a new 50% duty on steel products.

World Bank Gives Up on Climate Finance. The World Bank has announced that it would drop its commitment to allocate 45% of its annual lending to projects that yield climate co-benefits, reacting to Scott Bessent’s critique of the target, saying it ‘bred inefficiency and distorted decision making’.

India Scraps Restrictions on Domestic Fuel. The Indian government has removed restrictions on the sale of gasoline and diesel imposed on commercial buyers, previously setting the maximum limit at 200 liters/day per customer, citing an improving outlook for domestic oil supply and refinery runs.

Carmakers Double Down on Aluminium. Sapping the car industry’s demand outlook for copper, Ferrari and BMW have both rolled out new EV models that replace copper wiring with aluminium, currently a quarter the price of copper futures, whilst also saving up to 20% of total wiring weight.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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