Europe could face a jet fuel shortage within three weeks if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted, according to the region’s airport industry group.

ACI Europe warned that a continued disruption would leave airports and airlines short on supply during the start of the peak summer travel season. In a letter to EU officials, the group said a shortage would quickly ripple through the aviation system and hit economic activity across the bloc.

“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next 3 weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the group told Bloomberg News.

Roughly 30% of Europe’s jet fuel imports typically come from the Gulf area, and pressure is already showing up on the ground. Seven airports in Italy have restricted access to jet fuel in recent days as supply tightens.

Jet fuel is moving in the same direction as crude. Oil prices pushed above $100 per barrel after the disruption in Hormuz, raising costs for airlines already dealing with rerouted flights and closed airspace. Brent has since retrated, but was still near $96 as of Friday. Carriers have started passing those costs onto customers through fuel surcharges and added fees.

Europe’s supply position leaves little room to absorb a shock. The region relies heavily on imported fuel and has limited refining capacity dedicated to jet fuel production. ACI Europe said the current situation has exposed that dependency.

Airlines are preparing to ramp up for summer demand, when fuel consumption typically peaks. ACI Europe has asked the European Commission to monitor supply and production levels over the next six months as the situation develops.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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